MLB: Texas tries to buck Betting System

MLB: Texas tries to buck Betting System

The Texas Rangers have the worst pitching staff in baseball, in terms of runs allowed per game


2008-06-26

The Texas Rangers have the worst pitching staff in baseball, in terms of runs allowed per game, with a robust 5.6 per outing being scored. Despite being better of late, they're up against a tough betting system tonight vs. Houston. Most bettors have not taken notice, backing the Rangers at a 65% clip.

Of the 79 games the Rangers have played this season, 25 times (31.6 percent) they have surrendered seven our more runs. That's not to say Texas pitchers have been completely incompetent, from May 7-9, they had three consecutive shutouts which seemed as unlikely as Coldplay having songs with lead singer Chris Martin (Mr. Gwyneth Paltrow) actually enjoying himself.

Texas will try for second consecutive series win over in-state rival Houston in interleague play tonight. The Rangers will send veteran Kevin Millwood (5-3, 4.61, 1.600 WHIP) to the mound, who has won three straight decisions and hasn't lost since May 5, against Seattle. The right-hander has enjoyed his time in Houston posting a 1.98 ERA, and is 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA in seven career outings there. The Rangers have won four of six, mostly due to pitching staff not allowing more than four runs in six straight contests, giving the American League's best offense a chance to succeed.

Houston has really been in the doldrums, with 6-19 record in last 25 games, including seeing ace Roy Oswalt lose yesterday and record falling to unsightly 6-8. Wandy Rodriguez will be handed the assignment of keeping Texas as bay, much better than GM Ed Wade was able to do with former starter (and likely former Astro) Bobby Chacon in Wednesday's highly publicized incident. Rodriguez (2-3, 2.80, 1.227 WHIP) is having his best season in terms of allowing runs, never having an ERA below 4.50 in his career. The biggest issue with the left-hander is durability, as he has made it into the seventh inning only twice in nine starts.

Bookmaker.com has established Houston as -130 money line favorite, with total of 9 and the Astros are 13-6 in Rodriguez last 19 starts at Minute Maid Park. With the Rangers recent success in limiting runs scored, they fall into a trap of this Super Situation this evening.

PLAY AGAINST any team like Texas who allows 5.2 or more runs a game on the season (AL), after allowing four runs or less in four straight games.

The logic speaks for itself in this system. Over the course of a 162-game schedule, every team will do something out of character for periods of time. Boston has had hitting slumps, San Diego actually scored five or more runs a few games in a row, elements contrary to normal patterns. The facts are the Rangers pitching staff is perfidious across the board, including the bullpen with a 5.04 ERA.

This system has won 73.5 percent of the time in the last five seasons with 50-18 record. More often than not, these contests have not been close either, with the loser being outscored by 1.9 runs a game. Granted, the Rangers Millwood have pitched pretty well of late, however he and his Texas teammates are 2-14 as road underdogs when he's the starter. Toss in the trend of Rodriguez and ‘Stros players being 8-3 at Juice Box Park facing a team with a winning record and a fairly secure wager is possible.


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