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September 26th MLB news ... Thanks for stopping by Gambling on baseball online, the place that provides everything a bettor needs to score a profit on baseball.
Thanks for stopping by Gambling on baseball online, the place that provides everything a bettor needs to score a profit on baseball.
Profiting on baseball comes down to being up to date with all of the key trends and statistics on a daily basis.
Whether you need information how a team hits under the lights or simply the odds for the dayís games; all of that information and more will be provided right here.
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MLB: Record pace of MLB Totals less than 7 runs
In handicapping the MLB action last week, it occurred to meÖthere are a lot more games with posted totals of less than 7 runs nowadays than Iíve ever picked up on before. If youíve been active this baseball season, you know that scoring is down overall, but is the frequency of the real low totaled games in proportion, or an overreaction by oddsmakers? Either way, are there any specific trends or betting systems that we can take advantage of when analyzing these games? Letís take a look.
To start off with, Iím pleased to say that my hunch was correctÖAND HOW! So far this season, in games played through Monday, August 2nd, there have been 65 such games with totals posted at 6 or 6.5. Over the course of the prior five seasons combined, there were only 57 games meeting that low total criteria. I would categorize this as an unusual phenomena.
So why are the totals so low? To me, the answer is several-fold. For one,as mentioned before, scoring and home run hitting are down all across baseball. Also, right now, there are 11 different regular starting pitchers that boast a WHIP of 1.100 or less. Last season there were only seven, and in 2008, there were just five. In other words, there are a lot more ďacesĒ around this season to slow opposing lineups. Thirdly, the Padres pitching staff has been dominant in itself, and this yearís list of 65 games with totals of 7 or less includes 25 games at Petco park, home of the Padres. Finally, I believe bettors have forced the hand of oddsmakers to drop their totals more often than they have wanted to. In fact, in 22 of the 65 games, the posted opening total was 7 runs or higher, and dropped below that threshold only after bettors forced oddsmakers to make a bold move downward.
So, now that we have an understanding of how many games are meeting our low total criteria, is there anything specific we can lean on to gain an advantage against the oddsmakers when it comes to betting these totals? Take a look at some of these trends/systems:
ē Of the 57 games between 2005-2009 with closing totals of 6 or 6.5, 29 went UNDER and 28 went OVER.
ē Of the 65 games this season with totals of less than 7 runs, 36 have gone OVER the total, while 27 have gone UNDER, with two pushes. That means the OVER has won at a rate of 57% on hese games in 2010.
ē The average score of these low totaled games in 2010 has been HOME TEAM 4.1, ROAD TEAM 3.4, with the 7.5 combined runs surpassing the average posted number by more than one run per game.
ē Interleague play was a boon for bettors playing the OVER, as that side of these low totaled games converted on 10 of 13 opportunities, for 77%.
ē Of the 51 remaining games qualifying this season that were not Interleague, only six were American League games. The results on those were split, three OVERís, three UNDERís. The N.L. games were 23 OVERís, 21 UNDERís, one push.
ē Of the 65 games in 2010 with closing totals of less than 7 runs, 15 were day games and the results were six OVERís, seven UNDERís, two pushes. Thus, on night games, the OVERís were much more prevalent, with a record of 30-20, for 60%.
ē Interestingly, in the five seasons prior to 2010, not one of our low totaled games have come during the playoffs, when pitching is supposedly at its best.
In terms of ballparks, here are the total records in 2010, noted Over-Under-Push (Over %)
ANGEL STADIUM OF ANAHEIM (Angels): 0-1-0 (0%)
AT&T PARK (Giants): 3-6-0 (33%)
BUSCH STADIUM (Cardinals): 1-0-0 (100%)
CITI FIELD (NY Mets): 1-1-0 (50%)
CITIZENS BANK PARK (Phillies): 0-1-0 (0%)
DODGER STADIUM (Dodgers): 4-2-0 (67%)
MINUTE MAID PARK (Astros): 2-2-0 (50%)
NATIONALS PARK (Nationals): 2-0-0 (100%)
PETCO PARK (Padres): 16-7-2 (70%)
SAFECO FIELD (Mariners): 4-3-0 (57%)
SUN LIFE STADIUM (Marlins): 0-1-0 (0%)
TROPICANA FIELD (Rays): 0-1-0 (0%)
TURNER FIELD (Braves): 0-2-0 (0%)
U.S. CELLULAR FIELD (White Sox): 1-0-0 (100%)
WRIGLEY FIELD (Cubs): 2-0-0 (100%)
Of course, the most interesting trend on that list finds 70% of games at Petco Park with totals of less than 7 runs going OVER. It seems you canít discount the fact that San Diego is still a first place team and capable of scoring runs itself. In fact, in those 25 games, the Padres averaged 4.9 runs per game themselves. Furthermore, in the games the Padres played on the road with totals of 6 or 6.5, they are 2-1 OVER. One of the things to watch for moving forward is whether or not the frequency of San Diego games meeting our low total criteria declines, since the additions of Ryan Ludwick & Miguel Tejada to the Padresí lineup should result in increased run production.
The bottom line of all the analysis is this: Donít judge a book by its cover when it comes to low totaled games. The pitching may look dominant, or the ball park imposing on the hitters, but seven runs is not a heck of a lot to generate in a baseball game. In fact, when you consider that both teams just have to produce three runs each to force these games over (since their canít be a 3-3 tie), the chances for OVERís are even greater. Like anything else, oddsmakers are counting on bettors to side with the more common information, and in most cases, all signs are pointing to low scoring games. Naturally, thatís when the opposite occurs, and bookmakers rake in the profits.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 4/23-4/25
Major League Baseball touts a full set of 15 seriesí again this weekend, and a few divisional matchups along with some hot teams returning home will highlight the schedule. There figures to be a lot of intriguing betting opportunities over the next few days and Iím here to go over some of those. Of course, I will also reveal this weekendís list of Top StatFox Power Trends to keep an eye on. Head over to the GAME MATCHUPS page for more key betting info.
In the American League this weekend, Tampa Bay will return home after a historic road trip in which it went 9-1 at three different stops. The Raysí offense exploded for five or more runs in all but two games on the 10-game trip. For the next three days they will play host to Toronto, who is headed in the opposite direction. The Jays, after winning five of their first six games, are just 4-6 since, and trail division leading Tampa by 3-games in the East standings. Elsewhere, the Mariners, fresh off a 7-2 homestand, start a 6-game road swing in the Windy City, taking on the Sox. Chicago is in the midst of a 1-6 stretch in which it totaled just 17 runs. Seattle has closed to within Ĺ-game of the West lead behind Oakland. Speaking of hot teams, two of them will meet in Los Angeles this weekend, with the Angels hosting the Yankees. The Halos have taken 11 of the L15 meetings between these teams in Anaheim and come in on a run of 5-2 in their L7. However, the Yankees have won nine of their L11 games and have yielded just 16 runs in their last seven.
In the Senior Circuit, the Cardinals, tied for the leagueís best mark at 10-5, continue their West Coast road trip with a stop in San Francisco. The Giants have gone cold by losing their last four games but will send Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Matt Cain to the hill in this 3-game set. In Milwaukee, the rivalry between the Cubs and Brewers will continue this weekend, with the hosts trying to extend an incredible stretch of hitting. Milwaukee has won four straight games, generating 47 runs on 57 hits in the process to climb to the top of the MLB ranks in runs scored per game at 6.5. At the same time, the Cubs are scoring just 3.0 RPG and batting .224 on the road, part of a 3-7 mark away from Wrigleyville. Chicago is 10-6 in Milwaukee over the last few seasons and did take two of three from the Crew in Chicago last week. Finally, in Cincinnati, the leagueís hottest team in terms of winning streak, the Padres, put their 6-game stretch on the line at Cincinnati. San Diego hasnít been on the road though since April 11th and has gone just 2-4 while hitting .218 away from home in 2010.
It should be a good weekend to test some handicapping theories on hot teams and home/road dichotomies. Here are some of the Top StatFox Power Trends youíll want to consider when analyzing each series:
<b><i>LA DODGERS at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>LA DODGERS are 14-2 OVER (+12.0 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 7.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>ATLANTA at NY METS</b></i>
<li>ATLANTA is 32-50 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI</b></i>
<li>SAN DIEGO is 5-20 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>PITTSBURGH is 45-74 (-31.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CHICAGO CUBS at MILWAUKEE</b></i>
<li>CHICAGO CUBS are 24-53 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .350 or better since 1997. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>FLORIDA at COLORADO</b></i>
<li>COLORADO is 10-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA</b></i>
<li>PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO</b></i>
<li>SAN FRANCISCO is 53-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TORONTO at TAMPA BAY</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 9-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.9, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at BOSTON</b></i>
<li>BALTIMORE is 16-40 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>DETROIT at TEXAS</b></i>
<li>TEXAS is 24-9 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 14-40 (-25.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.2, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SEATTLE at CHI WHITE SOX</b></i>
<li>WAKAMATSU is 27-15 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game as the manager of SEATTLE. The average score was SEATTLE 4.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CLEVELAND at OAKLAND</b></i>
<li>OAKLAND is 38-27 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS</b></i>
<li>LA ANGELS are 43-21 (+21.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 2*)