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MLB: Record pace of MLB Totals less than 7 runs
2010-08-04

In handicapping the MLB action last week, it occurred to me…there are a lot more games with posted totals of less than 7 runs nowadays than I’ve ever picked up on before. If you’ve been active this baseball season, you know that scoring is down overall, but is the frequency of the real low totaled games in proportion, or an overreaction by oddsmakers? Either way, are there any specific trends or betting systems that we can take advantage of when analyzing these games? Let’s take a look.

To start off with, I’m pleased to say that my hunch was correct…AND HOW! So far this season, in games played through Monday, August 2nd, there have been 65 such games with totals posted at 6 or 6.5. Over the course of the prior five seasons combined, there were only 57 games meeting that low total criteria. I would categorize this as an unusual phenomena.

So why are the totals so low? To me, the answer is several-fold. For one,as mentioned before, scoring and home run hitting are down all across baseball. Also, right now, there are 11 different regular starting pitchers that boast a WHIP of 1.100 or less. Last season there were only seven, and in 2008, there were just five. In other words, there are a lot more “aces” around this season to slow opposing lineups. Thirdly, the Padres pitching staff has been dominant in itself, and this year’s list of 65 games with totals of 7 or less includes 25 games at Petco park, home of the Padres. Finally, I believe bettors have forced the hand of oddsmakers to drop their totals more often than they have wanted to. In fact, in 22 of the 65 games, the posted opening total was 7 runs or higher, and dropped below that threshold only after bettors forced oddsmakers to make a bold move downward.

So, now that we have an understanding of how many games are meeting our low total criteria, is there anything specific we can lean on to gain an advantage against the oddsmakers when it comes to betting these totals? Take a look at some of these trends/systems:

• Of the 57 games between 2005-2009 with closing totals of 6 or 6.5, 29 went UNDER and 28 went OVER.

• Of the 65 games this season with totals of less than 7 runs, 36 have gone OVER the total, while 27 have gone UNDER, with two pushes. That means the OVER has won at a rate of 57% on hese games in 2010.

• The average score of these low totaled games in 2010 has been HOME TEAM 4.1, ROAD TEAM 3.4, with the 7.5 combined runs surpassing the average posted number by more than one run per game.

• Interleague play was a boon for bettors playing the OVER, as that side of these low totaled games converted on 10 of 13 opportunities, for 77%.

• Of the 51 remaining games qualifying this season that were not Interleague, only six were American League games. The results on those were split, three OVER’s, three UNDER’s. The N.L. games were 23 OVER’s, 21 UNDER’s, one push.

• Of the 65 games in 2010 with closing totals of less than 7 runs, 15 were day games and the results were six OVER’s, seven UNDER’s, two pushes. Thus, on night games, the OVER’s were much more prevalent, with a record of 30-20, for 60%.

• Interestingly, in the five seasons prior to 2010, not one of our low totaled games have come during the playoffs, when pitching is supposedly at its best.

In terms of ballparks, here are the total records in 2010, noted Over-Under-Push (Over %)

ANGEL STADIUM OF ANAHEIM (Angels): 0-1-0 (0%)

AT&T PARK (Giants): 3-6-0 (33%)

BUSCH STADIUM (Cardinals): 1-0-0 (100%)

CITI FIELD (NY Mets): 1-1-0 (50%)

CITIZENS BANK PARK (Phillies): 0-1-0 (0%)

DODGER STADIUM (Dodgers): 4-2-0 (67%)

MINUTE MAID PARK (Astros): 2-2-0 (50%)

NATIONALS PARK (Nationals): 2-0-0 (100%)

PETCO PARK (Padres): 16-7-2 (70%)

SAFECO FIELD (Mariners): 4-3-0 (57%)

SUN LIFE STADIUM (Marlins): 0-1-0 (0%)

TROPICANA FIELD (Rays): 0-1-0 (0%)

TURNER FIELD (Braves): 0-2-0 (0%)

U.S. CELLULAR FIELD (White Sox): 1-0-0 (100%)

WRIGLEY FIELD (Cubs): 2-0-0 (100%)

Of course, the most interesting trend on that list finds 70% of games at Petco Park with totals of less than 7 runs going OVER. It seems you can’t discount the fact that San Diego is still a first place team and capable of scoring runs itself. In fact, in those 25 games, the Padres averaged 4.9 runs per game themselves. Furthermore, in the games the Padres played on the road with totals of 6 or 6.5, they are 2-1 OVER. One of the things to watch for moving forward is whether or not the frequency of San Diego games meeting our low total criteria declines, since the additions of Ryan Ludwick & Miguel Tejada to the Padres’ lineup should result in increased run production.

The bottom line of all the analysis is this: Don’t judge a book by its cover when it comes to low totaled games. The pitching may look dominant, or the ball park imposing on the hitters, but seven runs is not a heck of a lot to generate in a baseball game. In fact, when you consider that both teams just have to produce three runs each to force these games over (since their can’t be a 3-3 tie), the chances for OVER’s are even greater. Like anything else, oddsmakers are counting on bettors to side with the more common information, and in most cases, all signs are pointing to low scoring games. Naturally, that’s when the opposite occurs, and bookmakers rake in the profits.




MLB: Top MLB Weekend StatFox Power Trends 6/19-6/21
2009-06-19

Another full set of Interleague Football Live Betting Lines nfl football betting Online Bingo Online Bingo Rooms Bicimotos games is on tap for this weekend, and the American League is starting to distance itself from the Senior Circuit once again, as A.L. teams own a 67-58 record in the matchups to date. In fact, in one of the more unusual Interleague series’ this season, struggling Toronto just wrapped up a 3-game sweep in Philadelphia. Just a sign of the times I guess. Well, for this weekend, there are several intriguing matchups, including Milwaukee visiting Detroit in a battle of divisional leaders, as well as the renewal of regional rivalries between St. Louis and Kansas City and Dodgers-Angels. Read on for more about the action plus our regular look at some of the top StatFox Team Power Trends to consider in your wagering.

The series in Detroit is interesting not only because it pits divisional leaders against one another, but also because it is one of the few series’ where the N.L. team owns a better Interleague record to date. Milwaukee is 4-5 vs. A.L. teams in ’09, but only because it is coming off a sweep of the Indians in Cleveland. The Brewers’ bats exploded in that 3-game set, scoring 30 runs on 40 hits. Compare that to the Tigers, who hasn’t topped the 3-run mark in any of their prior seven games before Thursday’s 6-3 win in St. Louis. Detroit is 3-6 vs. the N.L. this season. This will be the first meeting between the former division rivals since ’07, when the Brewers took two of three in Detroit.

In Kansas City, the Royals and Cardinals, in-state rivals and regular Interleague foes, will get together for three games. The teams actually met just last month with St. Louis taking two of three at home, winning both games in 5-0 shutouts. The Royals will be looking for some improved pitching, as their staff was rocked by Arizona over the last two days for 24 runs on 31 hits. Keep in mind though that despite that series loss, Kansas City still owns a 18-9 record in Interleague play over the last two seasons, one of the better records in baseball. St. Louis meanwhile, is 18-21 over the last three seasons vs. A.L. clubs. The Cardinals currently trail Milwaukee by 1-1/2 game in the Central Division.

In Tinseltown, now that sports fans seem to be calming down from this past week’s post-Lakers championship celebration, the focus will be back on baseball, where the Dodgers will be visiting the Angels in a rematch of an exciting series played just weeks ago. The Angels took two of three in that set as part of what has been an 8-1 start in Interleague play. The Dodgers meanwhile are just 5-4 vs. A.L. clubs but still continue to lead the N.L. West Division by 9-games. Overall in this head-to-head series, the Halos have taken 10 of the last 15 games. Still, the Dodgers are the favorite for Game 1 of the series.

Elsewhere around the league, it will be Sunshine State vs. the Big Apple in two locales with the Mets hosting the Rays in New York, and the Yankees traveling south to take on the Marlins in Miami.

It figures to be another great weekend of baseball. Take a look at some key StatFox Power Trends you may want to consider when filling out your betting tickets.

PITTSBURGH at COLORADO
COLORADO is 13-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in June games this season. The average score was COLORADO 5.5, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO CUBS
CLEVELAND is 19-33 (-28.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.1, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE is 38-82 (-32.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.6, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 1*)

TORONTO at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 10-30 (-16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.3, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

MILWAUKEE at DETROIT
MILWAUKEE is 18-5 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 25-11 OVER (+13.7 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.1, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY at NY METS
NY METS are 2-9 (-8.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was NY METS 4.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at CINCINNATI
CHI WHITE SOX are 10-25 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 3.5, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

ATLANTA at BOSTON
ATLANTA is 14-4 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 6.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 24-12 UNDER (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 18-9 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 17-32 (-18.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.4, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

LA DODGERS at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 26-11 (+17.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better since 1997. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at SEATTLE
ARIZONA is 12-4 OVER (+8.0 Units) in June games this season. The average score was ARIZONA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at SAN FRANCISCO
TEXAS is 17-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.5, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)